Joker 2 Odds: Will Joaquin Phoenix or Lady Gaga Win an Oscar?

Joker: Folie à Deux (2024) trailer is out! Directed by Todd Phillips, the sequel features Joaquin Phoenix reprising his role as the Joker and Lady Gaga debuting as Harley Quinn. Will they secure Oscars? (Image: BFA / Alamy)

The official trailer for Joker: Folie à Deux has recently dropped, and it has led to film fans speculating about the level of success the sequel might have.

Joaquin Phoenix reprises his role as Arthur Fleck, aka The Joker, in the upcoming movie, and he’s joined by Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn. Their chemistry in the trailer has Joker fans salivating about the forthcoming film, which will be released on October 4th, and the pair both have the credentials to make it a huge success, and some casino sites even offering betting markets.

Joker: Folie à Deux odds table

Phoenix won a Best Actor Oscar for the 2019 psychological thriller Joker, which grossed more than $1 billion at the worldwide box office, making it the first R-rated film to do so.

Joker was initially conceived as a standalone movie, but its substantial success has paved the way for a sequel. 

Sequels don't always work out, but if the Joker: Folie à Deux trailer is anything to go by, then Warner Bros. looks set to have another huge hit on their hands. 

But can Phoenix repeat his Academy Awards success? Will Gaga win her first-ever Best Actress Oscar? And will the follow-up film feature The Joker's archenemy, Batman?

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Phoenix To Make Oscars History?

Phoenix would make Academy Awards history if he were to win a Best Actor Oscar for Joker: Folie à Deux, because no actor has ever received two Oscars for portraying the same character in two different movies.

It has been done with the same character when Phoenix and the late Heath Ledger, who portrayed The Joker in the 2008 movie The Dark Knight, both won Best Actor Oscars, as did Marlon Brando and Robert De Niro for portraying Vito Corleone in The Godfather film franchise.

Joker received 11 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, and triumphed in the Best Actor and Best Original Score categories, but it will be a tougher test for Joker: Folie à Deux to achieve similar success.

Sequels aren't exactly known for succeeding at the Oscars, but after the huge response to 2019's Joker, the follow up film could be in a league of its own. However, it's not always about the performance - a big part of it is down to the competition.

Phoenix will likely face a tough battle with the likes of Colman Domingo, for his role in Sing Sing, and Daniel Craig, for the forthcoming film Queer. Craig is looking for his long-awaited first-ever Best Actor win at the 2025 Academy Awards, but there will also be competition from the likes of Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, and A Real Pain star Jesse Eisenberg, which will make it tricky for Phoenix to achieve Oscars history next year.

Phoenix is 6/4 to do so, and 4/6 to fail to win a second Oscar for his portrayal of the clown-like criminal, but Gaga is just 11/8 to win a Best Actress Oscar for her portrayal of Quinn. 

She received a nod in the category at the 2019 Academy Awards for her part in A Star is Born, but she lost out to The Favourite's Olivia Colman.

Gaga looks set to face further stiff competition next year, with Emma Stone aiming to become just the third woman in history to achieve back-to-back Best Actress wins, after she triumphed for Poor Things earlier this year.  While she is the early frontrunner for the accolade, Blitz star Saoirse Ronan will also likely be in contention.

Joker 2's Tough Takings Task

After Joker took a staggering $1.074 billion at the worldwide box office, it will certainly be tough for a sequel to top that.

However, if Joker: Folie à Deux doesn't manage to match the first film's Academy Awards success, it could still prove to be a takings triumph. Phoenix's return as the complex character and Gaga's portrayal of Quinn will give the motion picture a big chance. 

Joaquin Phoenix won an Oscar for Joker at 92nd Annual Academy Awards in 2020. (Image: Christopher Victorio/Alamy)

Adding the romantic angle to the forthcoming film might bring in some romance fans, but this movie is set to be a musical psychological thriller rather than a straight psychological thriller. While this could also be a benefit, it might put some off.

It is 5/4 that Joker: Folie à Deux beats Joker at the worldwide box office, while the 2019 movie is a narrow 4/5 favourite to keep hold of its crown.

Where's Batman?

Joker featured 12 kills, with nine being inflicted by Arthur/The Joker himself. While a large part of the Joker: Folie à Deux story looks set to focus on Joker and Quinn's romance, there has been strong speculation that the sequel will be more violent than the original, and in the trailer there appeared to be some sort of explosion, which could lead to multiple casualties.

A further splattering of bodies looks to be expected, and it is 1/4 for there to be 12 or more kills in director Todd Phillips' sequel, and 4/1 for under 12.

Of the 12 deaths in Joker, two of the victims were Thomas and Martha Wayne, the parents of Bruce Wayne, who goes on to be Joker's archenemy Batman as an adult. In the 2019 movie, Dante Pereira-Olson portrayed Bruce, but the Caped Crusader himself didn't appear.

While it's not yet been confirmed, it appears likely that Bruce will appear in Joker: Folie à Deux, which will increase the chances of Batman being at least mentioned, even if an appearance of the caped character is unlikely due to Bruce being too young.

What's more, there has been speculation that another of Batman's adversaries, Harvey Dent, aka Two-Face, could feature in the forthcoming film.

With Quinn already confirmed, if Dent also appears in Joker: Folie à Deux, then it would make it even tougher for Joker 2 to ignore Batman, who is 1/3 to be mentioned or appear in the movie, while it's 3/1 and there is no mention of the Caped Crusader.