Is It Possible to Accurately Identify Problem Gamblers Through One Variable Alone?

Great Britain has one of the most accessible gambling markets in the world. Opportunities to gamble exist on most high streets and, with access to the internet and casino sites in virtually every home. 

The UK conducted the first large-scale project tackling issue of gambling-related harm in 2015. A lot has changed since then, and a lot of work has been done in partnership with the Gambling Commission.    

In 2021, a Health Survey for England included a chapter on gambling participation and the prevalence of at-risk and problem gambling and among the findings were that men were more likely to be identified as at-risk or problem gamblers than women and people who gambled on four or more activities were more likely to engage in at-risk or problem gambling than those who gambled on fewer activities. 

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Leading Academic Highlights Challenges in Survey on Sensitive Issue of Gambling

The GSGB has been conducted periodically since 1999 to monitor and regulate gambling in Great Britain. 

The survey uses a multi-stage, stratified sample design with random sampling of postcode sectors, households, and individuals. However, response rates have declined over time, from 65% in 1999 to 47% in 2010. 

Professor Sturgis discussed the two main approaches to online probability surveys: push-to-web designs and online probability panels. He noted that both approaches have their advantages and disadvantages, including issues related to response rates, sample size, data quality, and cost. He also highlighted the challenges of dealing with "offliners," individuals who do not have access to the internet or choose not to participate in online surveys. 

Professor Sturgis suggested that the development of a new survey design for the GSGB must take into account these challenges and consider alternative methods for recruiting respondents, such as paper questionnaires or telephone interviews. 

He suggested that a combination of approaches may be necessary to achieve high-quality estimates of gambling participation and collect accurate data on gambling behaviour and its effects while also considering issues related to cost and feasibility.  

Identifying Problem Gamblers Requires Multifaceted Approach  

In a recent ‘fireside chat’ at the CMS Conference in London, the CEO of the Gambling Commission freely admitted that the evidence from surveys on gambling was ‘not perfect’. 

The core objective of the Gambling Commission is to safeguard consumers of gambling services and the wider public by monitoring and regulating gambling in a way that makes it both safe and fair.  

The analysis of data from the Responsible Gambling Trust's research project found that it is not possible to accurately identify problem gamblers through a single variable alone and that a combination of variables needs to be considered to distinguish between problem and non-problem gamblers. This underscores the complexity of the issue and the need for a comprehensive approach to understanding and addressing gambling-related harm. 

Similarly, the 2021 Health Survey for England found that a combination of variables is necessary to identify individuals who engage in at-risk or problem gambling. The survey found that men were more likely than women to engage in at-risk or problem gambling, and that individuals who gambled on four or more different activities in the last 12 months were more likely to engage in at-risk or problem gambling. 

The difficulties the Gambling Commission has having accurate data on gambling behavior through surveys further highlights the difficulties in identifying problem gamblers. Despite efforts to adapt to changing survey methods and technologies, response rates have declined over time, and the commission has acknowledged that the evidence from surveys is "not perfect." 

Professor Patrick Sturgis has highlighted the need for a new survey design that takes into account these challenges and considers alternative methods for recruiting respondents.

In conclusion, the research suggests that identifying problem gamblers requires a multifaceted approach that considers a range of variables and factors. A single variable alone is insufficient to accurately identify individuals who may be at risk of harm, and it is essential to adopt a comprehensive approach to understanding and addressing gambling-related harm.