Odds on Lord of the Rings: The Hunt for Gollum’s Worldwide Gross and Oscars Chances

Andy Serkis is about to reprise his role as Gollum in the Lord of the Rings: The Hunt for Gollum. Serkis is also set to direct it. (Image: LANDMARK MEDIA / Alamy)

Lord of the Rings fans have plenty to look forward to in the coming years.

Animated movie The War of the Rohirrim is due to drop in December, which could be a marvellous Middle Earth warmup before the main action returns in 2026 - courtesy of a new batch of live-action Lord of the Rings movies. It's bound to be a hit, and such is the popularity of the previous movies, you can even play dedicated slots at most casino sites.

First off the production line will be Lord of the Rings: The Hunt for Gollum, which will see Peter Jackson - who helmed the original Lord of the Rings trilogy from 2001 to 2003 - return to production, and Andy Serkis will direct and lead the cast of the movie in his familiar role as Gollum/ Smeagol.

If that wasn't enough to get excited about, Serkis spoke more about the film just days ago to whet fans' appetites.

During an appearance at ACE Superhero Comic Con 2024, Serkis said: "The Hunt for Gollum is a work-in-progress title. It may not end up being called that. It’s going to very much be the world of Middle Earth, according to Gollum’s experience of it.

"It is so early; it would be unfair to commit to anything at this point. But I will say that it will be a deep dive where we investigate Gollum’s character."

What's more, in June, Sir Ian McKellen told how he had heard his iconic character Gandalf would feature in The Hunt for Gollum - and he is up for an appearance, but on one big condition.

He initially told The Times newspaper: "But there is no script, there is no offer, there is no plan," but when pressed on whether he would be interested in reprising his role, he replied: "If I’m alive."

While details surrounding the movie are certainly precious - as Gollum himself would say - there is plenty of hype that the Jackson/ Serkis dream team can deliver another success.

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Hunt For Gollum Could End In Riches

McKellen was one of the main cogs of the original Lord of the Rings trilogy, which worked wonders at the box office, grossing nearly $3 billion from the three movies, from a total budget of $281 million.

After that, Jackson and co made The Hobbit trilogy from 2012 to 2014, which consisted of movies The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies.

The prequel trilogy may not have received such rave reviews from the critics as the original hat-trick of Lord of the Rings motion pictures, but they did well financially, also grossing just under $3 billion.

There are clearly huge boots to fill for The Hunt For Gollum, but it's just 8/11 that the hotly-anticipated movie grosses more than $1 billion at the worldwide box office, while it's 4/1 that the film hits less than $800 million.

At the time of writing, Inside Out 2 is the highest grossing movie of 2024 with $748.7 million, but there have been some post-$1 billion movies in recent years.

In 2023, Barbie grossed $1.4 billion, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie hit $1.3 billion, while Oppenheimer just missed out with $975 million.

And in 2022, Avatar: The Way of Water grossed $2.3 billion worldwide, while Top Gun: Maverick amassed $1.4 billion and Jurassic World Dominion just topped $1 billion.

The Hunt For Gollum should certainly have a far bigger budget than its Lord of the Rings predecessors, and if it is anything like the Top Gun and Jurassic World follow ups then it could be happy days for Warner Bros. But will the movie receive any Oscar buzz?

Low Oscars Expectations

While it's tough to say what the strength of competition might be at the 2027 Academy Awards, it will be tough for the new Lord of the Rings films to get anywhere near the original trilogy's Oscars success.

In total, the trilogy won 17 Academy Awards and was nominated for 30, but the success was largely down to the third and final movie.

The Return of the King won an incredible 11 Oscars, including the coveted Best Picture prize, and the Best Director accolade for Jackson.

It came after 2001's The Fellowship of the Ring had won four Oscars, but missed out on Best Picture and Best Director, and The Two Towers won two Academy Awards for Sound Editing and Visual Effects.

The 2002 movie wasn't even nominated for Best Director, and missed out on Best Picture following a nod.

Thankfully, 2003's The Return of the King - which still holds the joint record for most Oscar wins, alongside classic movies Titanic and Ben-Hur - ensured the trio was a huge success.

However, the Hobbit franchise didn't quite follow suit.

The prequel trilogy received seven nods for the main Academy Awards in total, including Best Visual Effects for An Unexpected Journey and The Desolation of Smaug, and just one nod for Best Sound Editing for the third movie, Battle of the Five Armies.

But they left each Oscar ceremony empty-handed.

While The Hunt for Gollum could do well at the box office, that doesn't necessarily mean Academy Award success. Just ask Barbie.

What's more, only two movies - The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (11) and Slumdog Millionaire (eight) - have managed to win eight or more Academy Awards in the past 25 years.

The stats don't appear to be on The Hunt for Gollum's side, and neither do the prices.

The forthcoming film is 6/4 to be left empty-handed at the Academy Awards, or win up to four accolades, while it's a massive 12/1 that the motion picture replicates or outdoes The Return of the King by winning 11 gongs or more.

History-Making Serkis?

If The Hunt for Gollum does win at least one Oscar, then it wouldn't be a surprise if it had Serkis' name on it.

However, history is not on his side either.

Serkis wasn't nominated for an Academy Award for his previous work as Gollum in the Lord of the Rings franchise, but he has another opportunity this time around.

And he has more than one chance at Oscar glory, because he could also receive a nod in the Best Director category.

If The Hunt for Gollum is a huge success, then Serkis could well make history.

For now, he is 4/6 to miss out on an Oscar for the movie, but he is 6/4 to break his Academy Awards duck. It would certainly be a precious victory.