Odds on The Mandalorian Season 4: Is It Happening?

Star Wars super-fans were left shocked lately after the spin-off TV series The Acolyte was reportedly cancelled after one series.

Following the surprise news, which has been widely reported but not officially confirmed by Lucasfilm, supporters immediately got #SaveTheAcolyte trending on X.

The ending of series one, which was set around 100 years before Star Wars: Episode I—The Phantom Menace and at the end of the High Republic era—appeared to hint that more was to come for the show, and a potential return for legendary Star Wars character Yoda was even hinted.

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The Acolyte featured Amandla Stenberg as twin sisters Osha and Mae, and it also starred Jodie Turner-Smith, Dafne Keen, and Squid Game's Lee Jung-jae. Disney appears to have a recent history of shelving Star Wars spin-off series, though. 

While it hasn't ever been confirmed, there is plenty of online speculation that both The Book of Boba Fett and Obi-Wan Kenobi have been quietly dropped.

Boba Fett actor Temuera Morrison recently admitted the show appears to be "on the shelf" for now but insisted it could return at some point. Speaking at Fan Expo Chicago in August, he said, "I’m still waiting for a phone call, to be quite honest. I think we’re just put on the shelf for a little bit. Maybe we come off the shelf later."

However, Ewan McGregor recently told how he is "pretty sure" he will reprise his Obi-Wan role again. Speaking in April, he told LADbible: "The truth is I’ve talked about having to cover for doing the Obi-Wan season for years; I had to lie about that, and I’m not lying about this now."

Despite this, McGregor admitted at the time that he hadn't been contacted about a second season. He added, "I don’t know. There’s been no phone call to me from Lucasfilm or Disney saying, ‘Let’s do another one.' Obi-Wan was made as a limited series and it’s out and people like it, which I’m very, very pleased about. I hope we get a chance to do another one and I’m sure we will."

Ewan McGregor reveals he has yet to be contacted by Lucasfilm or Disney about a potential second season. (Image: LANDMARK MEDIA / Alamy)

So, there could be some hope for The Book of Boba Fett and Obi-Wan Kenobi, but there doesn't seem to be any for The Acolyte. While Star Wars is adored by millions around the world, the shelving or pausing of spin-off series clearly shows the Star Wars name isn't simply enough to make such shows into big success stories overnight.

But where does The Acolyte's axing leave another of the Star Wars series, The Mandalorian?

The Mandalorian Series 4 in Doubt?

In 2019, Disney+ launched with The Mandalorian series one, and there have been a further two seasons of the show since. Jon Favreau confirmed in 2022 he was writing a fourth series, and it is said to have gone into pre-production in 2023 before filming was delayed due to last year's Hollywood labour disputes.

Season three dropped just before the labour disputes began, and there's been nothing concrete about a potential fourth season since. 

One Mandalorian fact we do know is there is going to be a movie based on the series, called The Mandalorian & Grogu, which is directed and co-written by Favreau and slated for a 2026 release. This has since sparked speculation that there may not be a fourth series of the show, and Disney might want to concentrate on releasing further Mandalorian movies should the forthcoming film be deemed a success.

Just days ago, Morrison gave an update about the motion picture, admitting Fett won't appear in the movie. The star also revealed he was due to appear in The Mandalorian season four—but he hasn't heard anything about it. 

Morrison said, "I understand they’re gonna do a Mando with Grogu movie next, and, uh, things have changed a little too. There was going to be a Mando [season] four, I think, and I was going to turn up in that, but as of now, I’m still waiting for a phone call, to be quite honest."

In May, Disney CEO Bob Iger revealed the company lost a staggering $4 billion in streaming after Disney "invested too much" into it. This could be yet another nail in the coffin of The Book of Boba Fett, Obi-Wan Kenobi, and, of course, a fourth series of The Mandalorian.

What's more, in March 2023 Nielsen ratings showed The Mandalorian season three premiere had a near-40 percent drop off in minutes viewed compared to the season two finale. While Disney clearly held the series in high regard after using it to launch its streaming service five years ago, the fact that a Mandalorian movie is coming next, before a potential fourth series of the show, could be a concern to fans.

With The Mandalorian & Grogu heading to cinemas in May 2026 and no concrete talk of The Mandalorian season four's whereabouts, the axing of The Acolyte, the quietness surrounding The Book of Boba Fett and Obi-Wan Kenobi's futures, and Disney's recent streaming losses, it doesn't look too positive for a fourth series of The Mandalorian.

It's 7/2 for another installment of the show to materialise, but it's just 2/7 that it doesn't see the light(saber) of day again.  

Mandalorian & Grogu Can Make History

While we do know there is a Mandalorian & Grogu movie in the works, little is actually known about the story that will be told. Fans are aware that Game of Thrones actor Pedro Pascal will reprise his role of Din Djarin/The Mandalorian from the TV series, but how will the motion picture do at the worldwide box office?

The last Star Wars movie to hit cinemas was 2019's Rise of Skywalker, which was also known as Star Wars: Episode IX—The Rise of Skywalker, and that grossed $1.077 billion worldwide. But a year earlier, the anthology movie Solo: A Star Wars Story grossed just $393.2 million globally. Currently, Star Wars movies have a worldwide box office total of $10.3 billion, but The Mandalorian & Grogu could help topple the $11 billion barrier if it grosses around $700,000 or more, and it certainly looks doable.

The Mandalorian clearly has a loyal TV following, even if there has been a dropoff, but one of the main reasons for a decent box office performance could be that there hasn't been a Star Wars movie released in cinemas since 2019. Star Wars super-fans are desperate to head to theatres to see the franchise back in action on the big screen, so The Mandalorian & Grogu could take advantage of this, even if some fans haven't been wholly positive about the recent small screen releases. 

Grogu remains a fan favorite as anticipation builds for The Mandalorian & Grogu movie. (Image: BFA / Alamy)

The movie is reported to have a budget of around $120 million, and it would be a surprise if the motion picture didn't help Star Wars hit the $11 billion worldwide box office feat. Solo: A Star Wars Story aside, you have to go back to 2008 anthology movie The Clone Wars, which had a disappointing $68 million global gross, for the last time a Star Wars movie failed to hit $1 billion at box office.

Since then, The Force Awakens, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, The Last Jedi, and The Rise of Skywalker have all toppled $1 billion, with 2015's The Force Awakens managing more than $2 billion.

The odds are also in the forthcoming film's favour, as it is an 8/11 favourite for the motion picture to gross over $1 billion worldwide, which would thrust Star Wars into the $11 billion bracket and beyond. What's more, it's 11/8 that the feat is still achieved by a history-making Mandalorian & Grogu grossing between $700 million and $1 billion, but it's 5/1 for the film to go to the dark side and fail to hit the $700,000 mark.

May the force be with you, Mandalorian & Grogu.