Royal Family Odds: Will Prince Harry or William Become King?

The British Royal Family has always been a source of fascination and intrigue, with each member's actions and decisions capturing the public's attention. 

As we look ahead at probable developments within the royal circle, it's natural to wonder about the likelihood of various events. After a recent tragedy with the death of Thomas Kingston, a close friend of the family, and numerous health troubles plaguing the royals, we are all wondering: what’s next? 

From Prince Harry's return to the UK to the likelihood of a royal line of succession change, here are some intriguing hypothetical scenarios and their odds.

Prince Harry Odds & Predictions

The Duke of Sussex, Prince Harry is currently fifth in line to the British throne. He has had an intense few months. Battling in court for his privacy against the media and for security for his family, the prince faces an uphill journey. He will visit his home country for the Invictus Games on 8 May 2024. In the midst of his father’s illness, he is said to be willing to mend fences and even step up to help with royal duties at a time when the number of working royals continues to dwindle. 

Despite his willingness, we have reduced the chances of Prince Harry becoming a working royal again in 2024 to even lower than our previous prediction: to 1999/1 or 0.05% probability. 

Here are the most recent odds of events related to his visit.

Royal Family Odds & Predictions

Here are some of the major odds and predictions for the Royal family:

All Royal Family Odds

Meghan, Duchess of Sussex Odds 

After losing a deal with Spotify, Meghan has signed a new podcasting contract with the company Lemonada Media. Additional details of the podcast have not been revealed; however, Meghan might spill the tea on untold stories from her time within the royal family, offering a behind-the-curtain look at palace secrets. There are odds of 9/5 or 35% probability that Meghan will speak about her time in the royal family on the podcast. With a new lifestyle brand, she may not be focused on the podcast as a priority.

Another prediction relates to a milestone in the life of Meghan and Prince Harry’s firstborn and sixth in the line of succession for the British throne, Prince Archie. The odds of Meghan enrolling Archie into private school in May are 1/100 (99% probability). Both she and Harry attended private schools as children. Despite the many good public schools in their local California area, we predict that Archie will be enrolled in a private institution such as The Cate School for security reasons. The two most likely private schools in their area run from $30,000 to over $50,000 per year in tuition fees. 

Catherine, Princess of Wales Odds 

The 42-year-old princess has not had a public appearance due to battling a cancer diagnosis. Despite the previous official statements indicating that she will return to duties after Easter, our odds are 1/3 (75% probability) that the first time Kate will be seen in public is at Christmas, giving her more time to recover.

Prince William Odds 

Prince William is juggling an ill father and wife, public engagements, and more. A controversial statement on the Middle East and a meme-worthy BAFTA appearance both kept this possible future king in the headlines recently. What’s next for Wills? The pressure could be getting to him, as he has already missed one planned appearance: giving a speech at the funeral of his Uncle King Constantine of Greece. 

With King Charles already quite advanced in age and fighting cancer, it’s odds of 1/3 (75% probability) that William will ascend to the throne and remove his brother Prince Harry from the line of succession. Despite the recent family tragedies the two brothers have not reconciled, and Prince Harry is unlikely to meet with William on his trip to the UK: 18/1 or 5%. 

King Charles Odds 

The King may appear for his June Trooping the Colour parade despite his health concerns. The odds of him appearing in public for his garden party in Buckingham Palace's garden on the 8 May are 1/2 or 66% probability. 

We predict that the King has only a 20/1 or 5% probability of attending the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa on 21 October. 

Our previous prediction was that King Charles will follow in the footsteps of another older monarch, the former Danish Queen Margrethe II to focus on his health and recovery. This European royal abdicated her throne at the start of 2024. The odds of King Charles abdicating the throne by 2025 are low though: 18/1 or 5%.

Prince Andrew Odds

Prince Andrew's return to public life seems uncertain, especially in the wake of ongoing controversies. Although he was recently seen at his uncle's funeral, the likelihood of his full return to royal duties remains unclear. The public scrutiny surrounding his association with Jeffrey Epstein and the legal proceedings in the United States cast a shadow over his potential comeback; even as he was pictured smiling at his Uncle Constantine’s funeral, leading to speculation that he could return. The new embarrassing revelations however drop the likelihood of Prince Andrew resuming public duties this year to 9/1 or 10% probability.