French Gaming Authority Considering Ban of Polymarket After Massive Election Wins

^{The quasilegal Polymarket, seen here in July being advertised in New York (days before Joe Biden dropped out) was one of the clear winners this election cycle. (Image: Charles Guerin / Abaca Press)}

France’s National Gaming Authority (ANJ) is considering a ban on cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket, according to a report by cryptocurrency news site The Big Whale.

The ANJ may already have considered Polymarket a form of illegal betting in France, though the regulator could be taking closer notice after one French user made a massive profit on the site during the 2024 US presidential election.

French User Wins $19M on Trump Victory

The user, known as Fredi9999, bet a total of $28 million on former President Donald Trump to win in Tuesday’s election. That’s part of $1.3 billion that was bet on Trump, with another $827 million wagered on Vice President Kamala Harris to win – all part of an approximate $3.2 billion bet on various election markets on the site. 

Fredi9999 ultimately won his bets, as Trump was declared the winner of the election nationally early Wednesday morning. According to Polymarket, he made a profit of about $19 million on the contracts he purchased. 

While Polymarket has been known to ANJ since before the election, The Big Whale reports that the regulator might step up actions to ban the site in the French market soon.

“We are aware of this site and we are currently examining its operation as well as its compliance with French gambling legislation,” ANJ told The Big Whale.

While Polymarket is headquartered in New York, it is not currently legal for use in the United States. The site may benefit from recent legal rulings that have allowed companies such as Kalshi to offer prediction markets on election outcomes, though at least for now, Polymarket is not regulated under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

ANJ Might Find Blocking Polymarket Difficult 

However, many Americans still use Polymarket anonymously, as the site is accessible with little more than a cryptocurrency wallet. France would likely run into a similar issue, as users would be able to VPNs to circumvent domain blocking or other attempts to limit access to the site. 

Polymarket and other prediction sites have argued that they do a better job of predicting world events – including elections – than pundits, polls, or models. While Trump’s victory may be used to bolster these claims, the results were mixed overall, and it will take a larger sample to see how various prediction markets are doing in terms of estimating election probabilities.

For instance, Polymarket users were trading Trump as a modest favorite in the days and hours leading up to the announcement of election results, whereas models and polling predicted a very tight race. However, those same users also made Harris a strong favorite to win the national popular vote, while polls showed Trump having narrowed or completely closed that gap heading into Election Day. 

Ultimately, Trump won both the electoral and popular vote. Though votes are still being counted, Trump is currently leading the popular vote by approximately three percent, and will most likely win the electoral vote by a total of 312 to 226.