Kamala Harris Passes Donald Trump as Betting Favorite at Prediction Markets, Some Sportsbooks

Kamala Harris, seen here at a rally in Detroit after announcing Minnesota Tim Walz as her running mate, is now the betting favorite for who will win the US Presidential election in November. (Image: Carlos Osorio / Associated Press)

Vice President Kamala Harris is now the favorite to win the 2024 US presidential election at multiple leading prediction markets in the wake of her selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential nominee.

Harris is now favored over former president Donald Trump at both Polymarket and PredictIt, and has closed the gap at some traditional sportsbooks as well.

Note: Political wagers are prohibited at US online casinos.

Traditional Sportsbooks Remain Split

Harris surpassed Trump at Polymarket on Wednesday evening, with Harris shares trading at 49.3 cents compared to a flat $0.49 for Trump. These shares will pay out at $1 each if a candidate wins the 2024 presidential election, and translate to the equivalent of +103 on Harris and +104 on Trump.

The move was more dramatic at PredictIt, where Harris took a clear lead following her announcement of Walz as running mate on Tuesday. Harris has led Trump in that marketplace since July 31, but was trading at $0.53 (-113) compared to $0.51 (-104) for Trump before the announcement. As of Wednesday evening, Harris had moved to $0.55 (-122), while Trump shares were now trading for $0.48 (+108), their lowest price since early May.

Major European bookmakers are split on who should be favored, though most are still leaning towards Trump or have the race as a dead heat. 

At William Hill and Betfred, both candidates are listed at -110. Sky Bet has Trump at -120 while Harris is at -110, while Ladbrokes has Trump (-137) as a clear favorite over Harris (+100). 

(as of late Wednesday, Aug. 7)

On the other hand, Paddy Power and Betfair both list Harris as the -120 favorite over Trump (-110). Generally speaking, the odds have drifted towards Harris, who was a consensus underdog before this week.

Uncertainty Hangs Over Election Markets

Whether this is a temporary bump or a reaction to recent news events is still open to interpretation, however. Harris has dominated the news cycle over the last few days, stemming both from her selection of Walz and her swing-state tour taking place this week with her new running mate. Trump also suffered from coverage of his combative interview at the National Association of Black Journalists last week.

However, it remains to be seen if these recent events have any lasting impact on the presidential race. While Americans are familiar with Trump, many may still be forming their impressions of the Harris/Walz ticket. Their polling numbers may not settle until after the Democratic National Convention, scheduled for August 19-22 in Chicago. 

Any coming presidential debates could also prove critical in what appears to be a close race. While the candidates have gone back and forth over when and where such a debate would take place – not to mention the rules that would govern the event – users at Polymarket are now giving Trump and Harris an 87% chance of debating at least once before November’s election.