House of the Dragon Season 2 Odds: Who Will Die Next?

The show of the summer has returned, HBO Max’s House of the Dragon. 

With two episodes already aired, we’ve done the work, and can now reveal our analysis of what we can bet on for Season 2. See the predictions we made for Season 1 of House of the Dragon. 

These are all the (spoiler-free) betting odds and predictions for season two, episode three of House of the Dragon.

House Of The Dragon Recap

“To war, then”. — Aegon Targaryen.

Season two started after the death of King Viserys Targaryen in season one. Lines were drawn: Team Black and Team Green. The candidates for the throne are Aegon and Rhaenyra Targaryen, and behind each stands powerful family members and allies.

Rhaenyra is supported by her husband (and uncle…) Daemon Targaryen, her ex-mother-in-law(and cousin) Rhaenys Targaryen, and Rhaenys’ husband Corlys Velaryon. 

With the backing of the Velaryons, based in Dragonstone, also comes the support of their granddaughters, Baela and Rhaena Targaryen. Though they are still young, even children count when they control dragons: Jacaerys and Joffrey Velaryon, Rhaenyra's sons, are also supporters by default. 

Aegon is supported by his mother, “Queen” Alicent, his brother Aemond Targaryen, and grandfather the Hand: Otto Hightower. He’s also aligned with minor characters like Ser Criston Cole. 

House of the Dragon Season Episode 2 Recap

When we leave the story in episode two, the tension between the Targaryen factions escalates. 

Following the brutal events of the previous episode, Rhaenyra Targaryen seeks revenge for her son's death. Daemon Targaryen hires assassins, Blood and Cheese, to infiltrate the Red Keep and kill a male Targaryen. 

They ultimately murder Jaehaerys, the young son of King Aegon, which leads to further anguish and conflict within the royal family. Bloodthirsty brothers Aemond and Aegon are sure to want revenge.

This act of vengeance sets the stage for even more intense confrontations in the unfolding Targaryen civil war​. Queen Rhaenyra will also surely want another form of revenge, as "a son for a son" seems to have been miscommunicated. 

While we saw the queen mourning in advance for her dead son, she did not get a resolution until she was able to see the remains of his clothing and a dragon wing. Now she is sure he is dead, she will want to take action. It is likely that she won't be happy with her husband/uncle ordering the killing of the wrong son.

The lines are drawn with the most formidable opponents: Rhaenyra and Daemon opposite Aegon and Aemond.

House of the Dragon Season 2: Odds To Stay Alive For Season 

This list predicts which House of the Dragon characters are most likely to survive. The people at the top of the list will most likely live to fight another day. 

House of the Dragon: All Event Odds and Predictions

While Rhaenyra is a fan favorite, the Game of Thrones universe loves a plot twist. Rhaenyra is predicted to lose out to Aegon this season. She could not only be killed, but also decide to abandon the throne altogether for the sake of her remaining children and peace in the realm. 

Between the two, she seems to have more of a conscience than Aegon. 

Despite there being books that the series is based on, nothing is guaranteed and book readers could find themselves surprised by a change in the plot.

House of the Dragon Season 2: Dragon Counter

With the dragon eggs shown last season still in play, we predict more dragons will appear compared to season one. These are the dragons viewers can expect to see this time around.

1. Syrax
2. Caraxes
3. Meleys 
4. Vermax 
5. Arrax
6. Tyraxes 
7. Moondancer 
8. Seasmoke  
9. Sunfyre
10. Hatched dragon eggs 

Why did the show change the book plot and what should viewers expect next?

Season 2, Episode 2 makes several notable changes from George R.R. Martin's book "Fire & Blood." In the book, Blood and Cheese infiltrate Queen Alicent’s chambers and wait for Queen Helaena to bring her children. They kill her guards, tie up Alicent, and force Helaena to choose which of her sons will die. 

Helaena chooses Maelor, but Blood and Cheese kill Jaehaerys instead. The show simplifies this by not including Maelor and presenting a more streamlined version of events, where the killers directly murder Jaehaerys without forcing Helaena to make a choice.

Another key change is the portrayal of Alicent Hightower. In the show, she is depicted as being in bed with Criston Cole, which is not a scenario described in the book. This alteration adds complexity to her character and shifts some moral ambiguity from the Blacks to the Greens, providing a more balanced portrayal of both factions' ruthlessness. However, many viewers have complained that the show is set up to make the viewer side with the Blacks.

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*Note: In the UK, House of the Dragon Season shows on Sky Atlantic and the Now streaming service.