Controversy Erupts as Polymarket Offers Betting on Los Angeles Wildfires Amidst Community Tragedy

_{As Los Angeles wildfires leave destruction in their wake, debates spark over the ethics of betting on disaster outcomes. (Image: Associated Press / Alamy)}

Wherever one lives in the world, one cannot fail to be shocked by the scenes of the wildfires raging through Los Angeles. News channels and social media outlets carry film and photographs of the devastation and the impact on human and animal lives. 

Whole communities burnt to the ground. From the modest homes to the multi-million-pound mansions, the fires have treated all with contempt and doled out misery in equal proportions.

There have been stories within stories, from the heroics of the emergency services to the woeful ineptness of some politicians. Besides substantial economic impact, the weather could not have been any worse. 75 to 100 mph winds have fanned the flames, igniting thousands of acres of land with the homes dotted within just kindling in the path of the scorching flames of doom.  

It is hard to comprehend what people are going through as this unprecedented disaster unfolds in one of the most famous areas of California. Even harder to understand how anyone could offer some form of gambling platform on the outcome of the disaster. But offer it they have.   

LA Times Offers Their Take on Common Decency 

The LA Times has run an article by Bill Shaikin in which he claims that Polymarket invited people to stake money on 18 questions relating to the Southern California wildfires.  

Shaikin wrote: “You can bet on the next pitch, the next home run, the next game, the next World Series. You might enjoy betting on sports, or you might disdain it.  

“Betting on tragedy? Profiting off the pain of our community? We all should condemn that.”

Questions Played on Outcome of Disaster  

The questions ranged from how many acres the Palisades fire would burn by Friday. Will the wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisades wildfire be 50% contained? Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?  

_{Markets related to the wildfires can still be found on Polymarket at the time of writing. (Image: Courtesy of Polymarket)}

Scandalous? Outrageous? Despicable? Depraved? Cruel? These are the questions being asked of Polymarket, which bills itself as a “prediction market.”

Putting it mildly Nathanael Fast, director of the USC Neely Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision Making, said: “My guess is that most people don’t like the idea of individuals betting on or making money off disasters and catastrophes.” 

Fast also told the LA Times: “I have a hard time imagining that people are logging onto Polymarket to decide whether or not to evacuate. 

“On the other hand, though, if they are able to demonstrate repeatedly in events like this that they really can generate accurate forecasts, I think it’s possible that, in the future, this could prove to be a useful tool.” 

Betting on Disaster, Gamifying Life?

Fast raised an important observation relating to what he described as the ‘gamifying’ of life. He said, “It could create the incentive to influence events, or, in the case of wildfires, it could lead to a callous attitude toward others’ suffering. If we are gamifying life-and-death issues, it could really negatively influence culture and society in a way we don’t like.” 

It is not the first time Polymarket has used disaster as the basis for investment. In 2023, after the submersible Titan was lost at sea en route to the Titanic, Polymarket asked, “Will the missing submarine be found by June 23?” 

Mother Jones found two investors, one who bet yes and one who bet no. “Despite taking opposite sides of the bet, thanks to clever playing of the odds,” Mother Jones reported, “both…came away with thousands of dollars.” 

In a statement to the LA Times, Polymarket said, “We express our deepest sympathies to everyone affected by these fires and appreciate the heroic work underway by first responders and everyday Angelenos.”  

According to the author of the article, Bill Shaikin, the statement is hollow. He said, “So long as people still can stake their dollars on the calamities befalling everyday Angelenos. Polymarket should take down those wildfire odds. Those six historic words from 1954 ring true today: Have you no sense of decency?”