Final Thoughts on NFL Preseason Betting from the Casino Sportsbook

Like NFL players, NFL bettors can only hope things go as well as they did in preseason, if not better. (Image: Nolan Dalla)

The 2024 NFL preseason is now over. That’s good news because the regular season kicks off on Thursday, Sept. 5th. That’s bad news because preseason football games can be easier to figure out and bet on.

Indeed, as a public pro football handicapper I've been shouting from the sportsbooks for years that these so-called "meaningless" games are sometimes even more predictable than the regular season matchups. In other words, football bettors who dismiss preseason games are missing out on potential profits. They're leaving money on the table.

Takeaway #1: Betting on the NFL preseason is an underappreciated market with lots of positive situational expected value.

This naive perception and a proliferation of mass ignorance is perfectly fine with me. Those of us who pay close attention to this neglected betting market don’t want any more sharp bettors invading our space and.making our task more difficult. I probably shouldn't even be sharing this information and opinion. However, what shocks me most is that there are some respected handicappers out there spreading gibberish about NFL preseason games being unbettable and unbeatable. So, I'll state this as a matter of fact here and now:

ANYONE WHO SAYS NFL PRESEASON IS UNBETTABLE/UNBEATABLE DOESN'T KNOW WHAT THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT.

A final word of caution: I'd be very wary about listening to and/or tailing anyone in sports betting so naive who has this point of view. It demonstrates an appalling lack of understanding about the inner workings of sports gambling, complex betting markets, access to reliable information, and making the most of opportunities.

Have I made myself clear? 

Yeah, I’m glad the NFL regular season will kick off soon. But I’m also sad to see the preseason in the rear view mirror.

Exhibit A: Betting NFL Preseason Totals

Let's take what happened during the final week of NFL preseason, which ended this past Sunday. 

If you haven't been paying attention, UNDERs were killing it this entire summer. NFL preseason UNDERs were hitting at a whopping 81 percent success rate. Before the final preseason week of kickoffs, up through last Thursday night there had been 26 UNDERs, 7 OVERs, and 1 PUSH. The math shows – that's more than 4 of 5 preseason games falling UNDER the betting total. 

This all means the obvious, right? Keep on betting the UNDERs.

Wrong!

Sports gambling can be tricky. Even deceptive sometimes. Trends are useful, that is, until they're too well known. Then, a strange thing happens. The betting markets react, and in some cases overreact. 

Average bettors are swayed by what they've seen during the first few weeks of preseason. Many are especially persuaded by such an overwhelming win percentage. They expect more of the same and the strong UNDER trend to continue. The trouble is – sportsbooks adjust their lines and totals. In order to balance out the action and needing more money on OVERs, game totals plunge to surprisingly low numbers.

Take for instance the typical NFL regular season game, which is usually totalled around 43. The normal preseason game is usually about a touchdown lower, at around 36. This past week, the totals averaged 34. Translation: That's value.

Takeaway #2: Fading popular perception and betting as a contrarian should be a sport gambler’s first instinct.

Let's also add a few thoughts on a common abbreviation in betting markets, which is “RTTM.” That means "return to the mean." When a sequence of short-term outcomes falls way outside the norm, expect the long-term results to balance out. 

An easy example to understand is this: Flipping a coin ten times in a row and getting heads 10 times doesn't mean the next ten flips will land on tails. But over the very long run, expect that coin to land about 50-50 on heads and tails. The same principle applies to many facets of sports betting.

Exhibit B: The Contrarian Criterion

Last week as usual, I studied the NFL betting board closely. 

All of the totals were in the 31-37.5 range. Most over/unders were lined at around 33. Clearly, bettors had overreacted to the powerful 81 percent UNDER trend. Totals that probably would have been around 36 or 37 in typical preseason games were pushed all the way down to 33 and 34. So, past results and outlier outcomes were giving us roughly a field goal of value on every total. In a sport where every little edge matters, this was huge!

I didn't bet as much as I should have (admittedly, that’s a well-known bettor's lament after a win). I fished $2,000 out of my pocket and told the sportsbook teller, “give me all the OVERs this week.” Laying $110/100 on each game, I expected I'd break even, at worst. 

Fortunately, I ended up doing much better than that. OVERs went 11-5 in the final week. Two of those UNDERs probably should have gone OVER (for a 13-3 result with a little luck), except for a play or two. Nonetheless, that's still a winning record any sports bettor would be thrilled with on any NFL week. So, let me amend that statement: That's a winning record any sports bettor would be thrilled with on any regular season NFL week. To get the money in preseason is even sweeter.

Final NFL Preseason Betting Summary

According to pro football handicapper/reporter Dave Tuley, the 2024 NFL preseason concluded with the following results:

• Favorites finished at 24-22-1 SU (53 percent wins, but a significant moneyline loser).
• Underdogs finished at 29-17-1 ATS (63 percent wins). 
• Unders finished at 31-17 (65 percent).

Typically, pro football is quite tough to beat – even for smart bettors. The most successful bettors usually seek out opportunities in sports, games, and situations that are not as popular, nor as well known by the public. 

Preseason football will continue being a profitable venture for those who ignore the mass misunderstandings, and then willfully take advantage of those falsehoods.

Something to think about for next year.