Kamala Harris Surpasses Joe Biden in Presidential Odds as Pressure Grows to Change Nominee

VP Kamala Harris, seen here at a Thursday campaign event in North Carolina, has just surpassed her running mate Joe Biden as the odds-on favorite to be the Democratic nominee for president. (Image: Chuck Burton / Associated Press)

Vice President Kamala Harris is now the leading Democratic candidate to win the 2024 US Presidential Election in November at multiple betting and prediction sites, as President Joe Biden continues to receive pressure from allies and members of his own party to step aside.

At Bet365, Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump is the 4/9 (-225) favorite to win the 2024 presidential election as of midday Thursday.

Harris Surges, Other Democrats Remain Longshots

However, Vice President Harris is now the second choice at 4/1 (+400), significantly ahead of President Biden at 13/2 (+650). Those odds have changed in just the last few hours, as earlier in the day, Harris was listed at 9/2 (+450), with Biden at 6/1 (+600). Other highly unlikely replacement candidates such as Michelle Obama (+1400) and Gavin Newsom (+1600) are also taking some equity on the Democratic side of the market.

The changing dynamic at the top of the Democratic ticket can also be seen at PredictIt.org, a prediction site where users can purchase shares in a variety of markets which will pay out at $1 if they prove to be the winning answer to a posed question. 

Currently, Harris is the leading candidate to win the 2024 Democratic nomination, with her shares trading at 48 cents, the equivalent of +108. Meanwhile, Biden’s shares have slipped to $0.36, or +177. 

One of PredictIt's markets asks: Will a woman be elected US president in 2024? As of press time, "Yes" is trading at $0.31, which is up $012 since this morning. 

Calls for Biden to drop out of the presidential race began in earnest after his disappointing debate performance two weeks ago against Trump. President Biden showed his age, as the 81-year-old struggled to combat Trump on stage to varying degrees throughout the 90-minute debate.

As age had already been seen as Biden’s greatest political weakness, it was little surprise when Democratic allies and media pundits began calling for him to withdraw from the race ahead of the Democratic National Convention, where Democrats will officially choose their nominee in Chicago in August. 

Clooney Editorial, Internal Polling Signal Potential Shift to Harris

Those efforts have only intensified in recent days. On Wednesday, lifelong Democratic supporter and donor George Clooney wrote an op-ed in the New York Times calling on Biden to drop out of the race. 

Politico reported that Clooney told former president Barack Obama about the essay, and that Obama did not dissuade him from writing it. And former House Speak Nancy Pelosi (D-California) may have stopped short of saying Biden should drop out on Wednesday, but she didn’t offer unfettered support, either.

“It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run,” Pelosi said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “We’re all encouraging him to make that decision, because time is running short.”

Harris passing by Biden in the odds may be linked to new reports that even Biden’s team is at least considering the idea of moving the vice president to the top of the ticket. The New York Times reported Thursday that Biden’s campaign is engaging in polling to see how Harris would fare head-to-head against Trump in the presidential election, according to three anonymous sources. 

Depending on the results of that survey, it could be used as an attempt to convince Biden to drop out – or to show he is still the stronger candidate than Harris. 

While Biden’s polling numbers have slipped since the debate, they haven’t collapsed, with the Real Clear Politics average of polls showing Trump up about 3 percent against Biden as of Thursday, compared to less than a point of separation – generally in Trump’s favor – ahead of the debate.

UPDATE: The White House announced today that Biden will hold a press conference at the Walter Washington Conventon Center in Washington, DC, at 6:30 p.m. ET.