NFL Betting Contests Off to a Weird Start After Early Upsets

The Baltimore Ravens were just one of the big favorites last week that couldn't escape with a win, thereby eliminating thousands of NFL Survivor contestants. (Image: Nick Wass / AP)

Have we witnessed the strangest start to an NFL season in years? Not sure how to quantify that. But I do know that based on early returns on the huge Circa contests, the ostensible “sharp” money that enters has started off with pretty rough results. “Strange” probably works to the benefit of the casinos and their sportsbooks, more on that below. 

Circa Survivor, where contestants pay $1000 and pick one team to simply win their game each week, grew enormously in size for 2024. Circa sold 9,267 entries last year, and upped the guaranteed payout for the winner-take-all contest to $10 million for 2024. They take no rake, so any entries after the first 10,000 simply add money to the pot. They sold 14,233.

Unfortunately, the majority of entries have already busted. In Week 1, the Bengals alone knocked out 4,895 players when they lost to the Patriots. Then this week, the Ravens loss to the Raiders eliminated 2,304 more. Add in assorted others like the Lions (859) and the Eagles (785) and just 3,877 players remain. That accounts for just 27.2% of the initial entrees. 

Mass Carnage for NFL Bettors

In the 5 years of Circa Survivor, this marks the worst performance after two weeks. Similar early carnage in 2022 left 32.8% of players headed into Week 3.

Circa Millions has had an ugly start as well. Contestants here (including yours truly) pick 5 games against lines that Circa sets on Thursday afternoon. Picks are due by late Saturday afternoon. Since contest lines remain static and real-life point spreads move, we expect that the pool as a whole will nail over 50% of their selections. Not to mention that the contest attracts a relatively wise crowd.

Well, about that….the Week 2 picks looked like this:

Circa highlighted the 5 most selected sides. They all lost. In fact, so did the 6th most popular pick (Cowboys), 7th (Rams), 8th (49ers), 9th (Panthers) and 10th (Eagles). In Week 1, four of top five also lost. All told, quite the ugly start to 2024. Here are the weekly and cumulative results:

Yes, the pool as a whole got just 37.19% correct in Week 2, and 43.24% overall. Not good. Lots of NFL games of course hover near the spread and it becomes a 50/50 proposition on which side of the coin it lands. But of the top 5, only the Bears-Texans game fit that description. About ⅓ of the pool took the Texans, while the Bears had fewer picks than even the Bills on Thursday. For reference, Thursday games always draw relatively few plays since most everyone prefers to wait as late as possible for injury news and line moves.

All of this suggests a good first two weeks as far as the books are concerned. The “public,” defined as the vast majority of bettors who play relatively small stakes, virtually always leans towards favorites. That is true on both point spreads and money lines. Favorites have opened the season just 13-18-1 vs the spread. What’s more, 5 favorites of 6 points or more have lost outright. It’s also worth noting that the public leans towards the over on Totals, and that has gone 14-17-1 so far. 

The Circa pools should in theory reflect more of a “sharp” crowd as noted above. The high price points mean fewer casual players. The sportsbooks of course concern themselves with the total dollars wagered on sides, not the quantity of wagers. But to the extent the contests reflect more informed and/or larger players, many of this group has likely started the season off on the wrong foot as well.

I would expect this will all mean revert over time. Sportsbooks and bettors both adjust their markets. Point spreads have tightened as perceived parity between teams sets in. Totals have declined as we see reduced offense so far.  NFL teams essentially mail in preseason games nowadays. Starters barely play, if at all. Further, they have limitations on how often they can even practice in full pads. Thus the early portion of the season may ultimately look anomalous in hindsight. 

In plainer English, scoring will eventually trend back up as offenses get more in sync. And the higher quality teams will start playing that way. In a world where Overs and Favorites do well, bettors overall do well.

Consolation Prizes?

As for the contests, well, those Circa Survivor losers are obviously done. But on Wednesday, Circa announced a “Circa Survivor Empathy Package” that could help remove the sting, or at least give bettors ousted from the Survivor contest reason to come back to the downtown casino-resort. 

As per their press release:

“The Circa Survivor Empathy Package applies to anyone who lost all their entries in the first two weeks of the season. Contestants with one or two entries can redeem a two-night midweek stay at Circa Resort & Casino and a $0 minimum daybed at Circa’s year-round pool amphitheater Stadium Swim. Contestants with three or more entries out in the first two rounds can redeem a three-night midweek stay at Circa and a $0 minimum daybed at Stadium Swim. Offers are only redeemable from November 3 through December 26.”

Unclear exactly how many qualify for the freebie as Circa allows up to 10 entries per individual. We know 570 players did ante up for the max, so presumably most of those players still have some shots at this. Thanks to the carnage, any remaining ticket now has an implied value of $3,671. Obviously anyone with greater than 27.2% of their tickets left has net positive value, with the caveat that it does matter which teams you have used up already. 

On Millions, the pool as a whole will almost certainly end the season near and probably above the 50% mark. No one has gone 10-0, but 8 entries have 9-1 marks, and 8 more have 8.5 points.