Red-Hot Trump Inauguration Betting Markets Won’t Be Slowed by Frigid Cold

^{Donald Trump, seen here in the glow of a fireworks show at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, is the subject of heavy wagering on sites such as Kalshi. (Image: Matt Rourke / AP)} 

President-elect Donald Trump announced Friday that he would be moving his second inauguration, scheduled for Monday, Jan. 20, inside the Capitol Rotunda due to the extreme cold expected in Washington, D.C. that day. But while that may tamp down on the number of attendees for the ceremony, there are still plenty of betting markets available for supporters – and detractors – of the incoming administration to bet on.

Kalshi, the prediction market that was allowed to take bets on the presidential election in November after a court battle, is offering a wide range of markets on the inauguration and events surrounding it.

Attendees, Speakers Among Most Popular Inauguration Markets

Kalshi’s website lists a wide range of Inauguration Day events, ranging from who might make appearances at the ceremony to the political events that will happen on or soon after the day that Trump officially takes office. 

There are markets available on the chances of a wide range of politicians, business leaders, and celebrities making an appearance at the inauguration. The leading possibilities are Amazon executive chairman Jeff Bezos and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, both of whom are given 95 percent chances of showing up at the swearing in. 

Former New York City mayor and Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani is given an 82 percent chance of attending, while Joe Rogan is at 38 percent, with longshots including Tom Brady at 11 percent and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky at just 6 percent.

There are also markets to predict how many people will watch Trump’s second inauguration on television. Currently, the market is suggesting a 72 percent chance that Trump beats his first inauguration, which was watched by about 30.6 million viewers. Only slightly lower are his chances of beating President Joe Biden’s inauguration audience at 33.76 million viewers, which is priced in at a 63 percent probability.

Kalshi users aren’t particularly certain about any likely speakers at the inauguration, though a handful of individuals have reasonable odds. Ivanka Trump is the most likely unannounced speaker, with the market pricing her at 30 percent to speak, while Elon Musk is at 22 percent, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune sits at just 14 percent.

Trump Pardons, Tariffs Up for Debate on Kalshi

When it comes to political markets, there has already been over $100,000 wagered on which countries Trump might impose tariffs on immediately after taking office. Users at Kalshi are fairly confident Trump will take economic action against someone, with markets pricing a 63 percent chance of any tariffs coming into effect before Thursday, January 23. 

However, there’s plenty of disagreement on who Trump might target during this period. China (44 percent) and Mexico (42 percent) are the most likely targets, with Canada (24 percent) also seen as a realistic possibility.

There’s also a lot of talk about whether Trump will pardon any of the January 6 protestors who were charged with crimes for entering the Capitol in early 2021. Bettors like the odds of Trump making at least one pardon on Monday, giving that outcome a 76 percent chance of happening. 

But they don’t necessarily think the pardons will stop there: there’s a 55 percent chance of Trump issuing at least 100 pardons, and even a 23 percent shot that he’ll pardon at least 1000 of those charged with crimes on January 6, 2021. 

Kalshi is a trading platform that is regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market. The CFTC had decided against allowing Kalshi to offer election-based betting, saying that doing so would violate federate and state laws and threaten the integrity of elections. 

However, a US District Court judge in overruled that decision September 2024, and while the CFTC was able to get a temporary restraining order preventing such bets, Kalshi ultimately prevailed in court, allowing for election and political betting to continue on the site.