Tyson vs. Paul: Who’s Going to Win? How Long Will it Last?

^{The old-school pre-fight near-brawl was on full display yesterday as fans and bettors were all smiles ahead of a battle of the centuries between Mike Tyson (left) and Jake Paul (right). (Image: Julio Cortez / AP)}

Friday night's most unusual boxing spectacle between two fighters from different generations and eras – you could even say different centuries – is getting lots of attention, especially in betting markets.

In terms of public interest, this fight should be a knockout. On the other hand – will there be a knockout punch thrown at all?

That's for bettors to figure out, and what I’ll discuss here.

Fight for the Ages

Jake Paul, who is 27, is set to fight an opponent more than twice his age. Legendary Mike Tyson, now age 58, made his debut in the ring as a professional almost 40 years ago (in 1985). However, the Las Vegas local hasn't stepped into the ring in 19 years (his last fight was in 2005). Tyson will lace up his gloves up against an opponent who is young enough to be his son, and then some. In an effort to protect the fighters (particularly the more senior Tyson) this highly unusual boxing match prompted a number of changes to the fight rules, including:

• Both fighters’ boxing gloves will be 14 ounces instead of 10 ounces (which means punches won't have as much speed and force)
• Rounds will be two minutes long instead of three (which means the chance of a knockout are reduced)
• The fight is scheduled for just eight rounds, rather than the customary 10 or 12 rounds (which means this fight is more likely to go the distance, resulting in a judges' decision)

So, what’s the best bet on this fight?

I’ve got two wagers tonight, each with compelling reasoning behind them. Let’s see if you agree.

Finding the Betting Edge

Tyson clearly enjoys a huge edge in both experience and technique. Paul enjoys obvious advantages in age, stamina, and recent performance. Oddsmakers here in Las Vegas agree Paul is a prohibitive favorite:

To Win

Paul: -260 (laying $260 will win back $100 in profit)  

Tyson: +195 (laying $100 will win back $195 in profit)

O/U on Duration

5.5 rounds (OVER -135)

[Note that these odds vary by sportsbook and are subject to change.)

Best Bet: OVER ON DURATION

This fight should easily go OVER 5.5 rounds. Note the vig is slightly higher than usual, as money is heading in the direction of the OVER. 

Don't Bet on a Knockout

First, let’s agree these fighters are in this for a big paycheck. Nobody really wins with an early knockout, especially not Paul who won’t win over any fans by knocking out a 58-year-old boxing icon. Look for Paul to tie-up Tyson and carry him through the early rounds, which gives the fans extra time to enjoy the spectacle.

However, the biggest factors include rule changes. Heavier boxing gloves reduce the impact of every punch. That makes it harder for either fighter to deliver a blow with enough force to stun the other with a knockdown and/or a knockout. 

Moreover, reducing the round time from 3 minutes to 2 minutes essentially makes this O/U “4 rounds” instead of “6 rounds.” Shave one-minute off of the first five rounds, and that’s five minutes less fight time. Note that a majority of knockouts occur in the later stages of rounds because of fatigue and mistakes. Breaks will allow both to catch their breaths and recuperate.  

Furthermore, the “embarrassment” angle of this match cannot be overemphasized. Don’t be fooled by pre-match hype and Thursday’s staged tussle, which has become standard in boxing promotion. Paul would love nothing more than either a late-round knockout (by TKO) or a judges’ decision. Let’s also put some faith in Tyson here, who is a prideful fighter and won’t go down easily. Tyson may be nearing enrolling in Social Security, but he’s likely to show up and stand tall in the ring – perhaps one last time.

Recommended Wager: 

Fight to go OVER 5.5 rounds (-135) [Westgate Las Vegas]

Great Value Bet: PAUL BY DECISION

I was stunned to see this prop at +280. Assuming we expect and are correct about our “OVER 5.5 Rounds” wager, it’s natural to also predict this fight goes the full eight rounds.

We have to account for Paul’s obvious advantages in a decision. Even with Tyson’s experience and lifetime of boxing expertise, Paul is unlikely to be seriously in danger of a knockout. These are both tough fighters who should be able to take punches.

Accordingly, if the fight goes the full distance, that places the outcome in the hands of three judges. Even if a bettor assumes that a decision could favor Tyson (perhaps out of sentiment and his boxing experience), to list Paul at +280 is simply too much of a value to pass on. Let’s put it this way, Paul is more likely to win by decision than Tyson is to win by knockout (priced at +200).

Recommended Wager:

Paul to Win by Decision (+280) [Circa Las Vegas]

The opening bell rings Friday night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington (Dallas), Texas, and in front of millions who will be watching on Netflix. The scheduled start time is 7 pm CT, though that's subject to change due to a full card containing a total of seven bouts, including multiple championship prizefights.

Writer’s Note: Special thanks to Matt Lessinger for his consultation and advice in these picks and this article.